Aah, welcome back confused looking Winter. Be happy. Soon you'll be sharing some records rather than owning them outright.
Remember last year, when after a disastrous first half of the season, things seemed to be looking up, so we could have a bit of a laugh at the way Toronto FC broke all sorts of dubious records, both for the club (goals conceded, goal difference), and league wide (most players used)? Fun. After all, things were getting better, that was #preseason2012, we wouldn't have to think about that again this season would we?
Well of course, we kicked things off by taking the league record for longest losing streak to start the season (worst team in the world! whoo!), and after a promising couple of months, things have taken another bleak turn. I'm already thoroughly depressed, and 25 games is a nice round number for calculations purposes, so let's take a look at what other dubious achievements this year's team might end up with.
First up, here's TFC's record so far, just in case you'd been desperately trying to forget it.
25 games played, 20 points, 28 goals scored and 45 against for a whopping -17 goal difference.
Extrapolate that over a 34 game season and we'll have
27 points, 38 goals for, 61 against, and a -23 goal difference.
The only 34 game season to compare that to was the Winterlicious 2011 season which despite a second half recovery was still statistically a very very bad one. That team limped home with:
33 points, 36 goals scored, 59 against, a -23 goal difference.
So, we're currently on pace to break TFC's record for fewest points in a 34 game season, and most goals conceded in any season, while tying the goal difference record. Excellent.
Now I know what you're thinking, We're much better under Paul Mariner so it's only fair to use our record under Mariner (17 pts, 20 for, 24 against in 15 games)to calculate the numbers for our remaining games. For the remaining 9 games, that would translate to 10 points, 12 goals, 14 goals against, so add that to the current record, and it does improve things slightly, and leaves us with this.
30 points, 40 goals for and 59 against, -19. Tied for goals conceded and with a better goal difference, but still the fewest points.
Of course most of TFC's seasons have been 30 games, and the worst of those was the craptacular 2007 Mo Johnston team. Their record:
25 points, 25 goals for, 49 against, for a -24 goal difference
Just for shiggles, here's Aron Winter's 2011 team's record for the first 30 games.
30 points, 32 goals for, 52 goals against for a -20 goal difference
Here's what the 2012 team's record would be when stretched to 30 games:
24 points, 34 goals for, 54 against, for a -20 goal difference.So, we're once again track for fewest points and most goals conceded at the 30 game mark. Whee.
If we again use Mariner's current record for the last 5 games it would bring us to this.
25.66666 points, so I'll round up to 26, 35 goals for, and 53 against, -18 goal difference. So just, by virtue of rounding up, avoiding the lowest points record, but still beating the goals against mark.
Of course these numbers don't really mean anything at this stage, it's all hypothetical, so to get to something meaningful, here's what record TFC needs to get out of it's remaining games to avoid the 'worst in team history' tags.
Over the next 5 games for the 30 game records.
6 points, 6 goals against maximum, better than -7 goal difference. Seems doable, until you look at our last 5 games, 1 point, 9 goals against, -5 goal difference, and then you look at who we're playing in the next 5 games, Houston away, Kansas City away, Chicago at home, Philadelphia at home and L.A away. That's a tough schedule for pulling yourself out of a slump.
Over the next 9 games for the 34 game records.
14 points, at least 7 goals for, 13 goals against at most, and a -5 goal difference at worst. I'm confident about goals scored, but the rest are looking unlikely. No pressure Paul, no pressure.
Of course, the most depressing record of all is already all but mathematically in the book, longest playoff less streak in league history, now extended to 6 seasons.