World Cup Qualification Scenarios

Nothing at all to do with the article, but the photo amuses me. Well done Sir. - Adam Pretty

Alright, it's business time, who needs to do what to make it to the next round?

Well, all the groups have now played 2 of the 3 games and the qualification situation is becoming clearer, some teams are through, some teams are out, some have everything still to play for. But who needs to do exactly what to get through. Group by group, here's what needs to happen, based on the following tiebreakers:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;

b) goal difference in all group matches;

c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their

rankings shall be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the

teams concerned;

e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams

concerned;

f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams

concerned;

g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

Got all that, excellent. here we go.

Group A

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
1
1
0
3
1
2
4
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
1
4
3
2
1
0
1
5
3
2
3
4
2
0
0
2
0
5
-5
0

Fixtures (Monday at 4 Eastern)

Brazil vs Cameroon, Croatia vs Mexico

What we know for sure:

Cameroon are out.

Who needs what?

Croatia
Win = Through
Tie + Brazil win or tie = Out
Tie + Brazil lose = Through, in 2nd place and ahead of Brazil on goal difference
Lose = Out.

Mexico
Win = Through.
Tie = Through
Lose + Brazil win or tie = Out
Lose AND Brazil lose, and it's down to goal difference for 2nd place, so:
-Lose by same margin as Brazil, or by more = Out
-Lose by 2 goals fewer than Brazil = Through
-Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil, and we move on to goals scored, so:
--
Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil and score the same or one more than Brazil = Out
--Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil and score 3 more than Brazil = Through
--Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil and score 2 more than Brazil and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out

Brazil
Win = Through
Tie = Through
Lose + Mexico Win = Through
Lose + Mexico/Croatia Tie = Out, in 3rd behind Croatia on goal difference
Lose + Croatia win = Tied with Mexico, down to goal difference for 2nd place so:
-Lose by the same margin as Mexico, or lower = Through
-Lose by 2 more goals than Mexico = Out
-Lose by 1 more than Mexico and it's off to goals scored, so:
--Lose by 1 more than Mexico and score more, the same, or 1 less than Mexico = Through
--Lose by 1 more than Mexico and score 3 or more less than Mexico = Out
--Lose by 1 more than Mexico and score 2 less than Mexico and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through in 2nd, Lose = Out

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Brazil Win, Mexico Win = Brazil and Mexico through, 1st depends on GD
Brazil Win, Mexico/Croatia Tie = Brazil 1st Mexico 2nd
Brazil Win, Croatia Win = Brazil 1st, Croatia 2nd
Brazil/Cameroon Tie, Mexico Win = Mexico 1st, Brazil 2nd
Brazil/Cameroon Tie, Mexico/Croatia Tie = Brazil 1st Mexico 2nd
Brazil/Cameroon Tie, Croatia Win = Croatia 1st, Brazil 2nd
Cameroon Win, Mexico Win = Mexico 1st Brazil 2nd
Cameroon Win, Mexico/Croatia Tie = Mexico 1st Croatia 2nd
Cameroon Win, Croatia Win = Croatia 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Brazil and Mexico as detailed above.

Group B

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
8
3
5
6
2
2
2
0
0
5
1
4
6
3
2
0
0
2
3
6
-3
0
4
2
0
0
2
1
7
-6
0

Fixtures (Monday at 12 Eastern)

Netherlands vs Chile, Spain vs Australia

What we Know for sure:

Hooray for simplicity, Netherlands and Chile are through, Australia and Spain are out.

Who needs what?

Spain vs Australia really doesn't matter. It's just down to if Netherlands or Chile value first place. 
Netherlands Win = Netherlands 1st, Chile 2nd
Tie = Netherlands 1st, Chile 2nd
Chile win = Chile 1st, Netherlands 2nd

Group C

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
5
1
4
6
2
2
1
0
1
3
3
0
3
3
2
0
1
1
1
2
-1
1
4
2
0
1
1
0
3
-3
1

Fixtures (Tuesday at 4 Eastern)

Colombia vs Japan, Greece vs Cote d'Ivoire

What we know for sure:

Colombia are through

Who needs what?

Greece
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win + Japan lose or tie = Through
Win + Japan win and we're off to goal difference, so:
-Win by less than 2 goals more than Japan = Out
-Win by 3 or more goals more than Japan = Through
-Win by 2 goals more than japan and we move on to goals scored, so:
--Score the same or less than japan = Out
--Score 2 more than Japan = Through
--Score 1 more than Japan, and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through in 2nd, Lose = Out

Japan
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and Cote d'Ivoire Win = Out
Win and Cote d'Ivoire/Greece Tie = tied for 2nd, to goal difference it is, so:
-Win by more than one and Cote d'Ivoire Tie = Through
-Win by One and Cote d'Ivoire Tie and it's on to goals scored, so:
--Score 1 or fewer more than Cote d'Ivoire = Out
--Score 3 or more more than Cote d'Ivoire = Through
--Score 2 more than Cote D'Ivoire and it's head to head. Cote d'Ivoire won that game 2-1, therefore = Out
Win and Greece win = Tied for 2nd, to goal difference is is, so:
-Win by more than, the same as or one fewer than Greece = Through
-Win by 3 fewer than Greece = Out
-Win by 2 fewer than Greece and it's on to goals scored, so:
--Score more or the same as Greece = Through
--Score 2 fewer than Greece = Out
--Score 1 fewer than Greece and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through in 2nd, Lose = Out

Cote d'Ivoire

Win = Through
Lose = Out
Tie and Japan Lose or Tie = Through
Tie and Japan win = tied for 2nd, to goal difference it is, so:
-Tie and Japan win by 2 or more = Out
- Tie and Japan win by 1 and it's off to goals scored so:
--Score more, the same as or one fewer than Japan = Through
--Score 3 fewer than Japan = Out
--Score 2 fewer than Japan and it's off to head to head. Cote d'Ivoire won that game 2-1 = Through

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Colombia Win or Colombia/Japan tie, Cote d'Ivoire win or Cote d'Ivoire/Greece Tie = Colombia 1st, Cote d'Ivoire 2nd
Colombia Win or Colombia/Japan tie, Greece Win = Colombia 1st, Greece 2nd
Japan Win, Cote d'Ivoire Win = Colombia and Cote d'Ivoire through, 1st place dependent on GD
Japan Win, Cote d'Ivoire/Greece Tie = Colombia 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Japan and Cote d'Ivoire
Japan Win, Greece Win = Colombia 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Japan and Greece

Group D

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
4
1
3
6
2
2
1
0
1
2
2
0
3
3
2
1
0
1
3
4
-1
3
4
2
0
0
2
2
4
-2
0

Fixtures (Tuesday at 12 Eastern)

England vs Costa Rica, Italy vs Uruguay

What do we know for sure:

Costa Rica are Through, England are Out

Who needs what?

Italy
Win = Through
Tie = Through on goal difference
Lose = Out

Uruguay
Win = Through
Tie = Out on goal difference
Lose = Out

Nice and simple. England could potentially move up to 3rd, Costa Rica might drop to 2nd, but whatever.

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Costa Rica Win or Costa Rica/England Tie, Italy Win or Italy/Uruguay Tie = Costa Rica 1st, Italy 2nd
Costa Rica Win or Costa Rica/England Tie, Uruguay Win = Costa Rica 1st, Uruguay 2nd
England Win (Yes, I know, I know), Italy Win = Costa Rica and Italy through, 1st place goes to GD
England Win, Italy/Uruguay Tie = Costa Rica 1st, Italy 2nd
England Win, Uruguay Win = Costa Rica and Uruguay through, 1st Place goes to GD

Group E

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
8
2
6
6
2
2
1
0
1
3
3
0
3
3
2
1
0
1
4
6
-2
3
4
2
0
0
2
1
5
-4
0

Fixtures (Wednesday 4pm)

France vs Ecuador, Honduras vs Switzerland

What do we know for sure?

Nothing. We know Nothing. Everyone could still qualify, everyone could still get knocked out. This will get complicated.

Who needs what?

France
Win = Through
Tie = Through
Lose + Switzerland Lose or Tie = Through
Lose + Switzerland Win and it'd be a 3 way tie with 6 points and off to Goal Difference, so:
-Lose by 2 goals or less, and they're guaranteed to finish above Ecuador on Goal Difference = Through
-Lose by 3 and they'd be tied on Goal Difference, but guaranteed to finish above Ecuador on Goals Scored = Through
-Lose by 4 or more, they'd be behind Ecuador on Goal Difference, but Switzerland would still need to make up the gap, there'd need to be an 9 goal swing for Switzerland to overtake them, ie France lose by 4, Switzerland win by 3 = Through, France lose by 4, Switzerland win by 5 = Out. 
-Lose by 4 or more and Switzerland win with an exact 8 goal swing, it'd be off to goals scored, France currently has 4 more goals than Switzerland, so Switzerland would need to score 5 more than France. 
-If it goes down to head to head between France and Switzerland, France = Through.
Basically France not qualifying would be the craziest thing ever.

Ecuador
Win + Switzerland Lose or Tie = Through
Win + Switzerland win = 3 way tie for 1st with 6 points, and off to Goal Difference, so:
-Win by 4 or more = Through ahead of France
-Win by less than 4, but with a margin of more, the same amount or even 1 goal fewer than Switzerland = Through ahead of Switzerland.
-Win by less than 4, and by 3 or more fewer than Switzerland = Out
-Win by less than 4, and by 2 fewer than Switzerland it's down to goals scored between the 2, and Switzerland already have a 1 goal lead, so:
--Score 2 more than Switzerland = Through
--Score the same or fewer than Switzerland = Out
--Score one more than Switzerland and it's off to head to head. Switzerland won 2-1  = Out

Tie + Honduras Win = Through
Tie + Switzerland Win = Out
Tie + Switzerland Tie = Through on Goal Difference

Lose + Switzerland Win or Tie = Out
Lose + Honduras Win = 3 way tie for 2nd place with Switzerland and Honduras, and it's off to goal difference, so;
There'd have to be a 4 goal swing between Ecuador and Honduras, so:
-Lose by 1 and Honduras win by less than 3 = Through
-Lose by 2 and Honduras win by 1 = Through
-Lose by 3 and Honduras win by more than 1 = Out
-Lose by 4 = Out
If the exact 4 goal swing happens, there's still plenty of options, so:
-Lose by 1, Honduras wins by 3, or lose by 2 and Honduras wins by 2, it's off to goals scored between Ecuador and Honduras, Ecuador currently has a 2 goal headstart. 
--Ecuador scores more than, the same as or 1 fewer than Honduras = Through
--Ecuador scores 3 or more fewer than Honduras = Out
--Ecuador score 2 fewer than Honduras and it's off to head to head, Ecuador won 2-1 = Through

Here's where it could get crazy,
-Lose by 3, and Honduras wins by 1, Switzerland are back in it, as they'd all be tied on -3 goal difference, and it's off to goals scored. Switzerland currently has 4 goals, Ecuador 3, Honduras 1. As Honduras is only winning by 1, Switzerland would definitely finish above Honduras in this scenario so Ecuador has to finish above Switzerland so:
--Score 2 more than Switzerland, ie
Ecuador loses 2-5, Switzerland loses 1-0 = Through
--Score the same as or fewer than Switzerland = Out
--Score 1 more than Switzerland, ie Ecuador loses 2-5 Switzerland loses 1-2, and it's off to head to head. Switzerland won 2-1= Out

Switzerland

Win + Ecuador Lose or Tie = Through
Win + Ecuador Win = 3 way tie for 1st place and off to Goal Difference, so;
There's a 9 goal swing needed to overtake France on goal difference, (or 8 goal swing to tie GD AND scoring 5 more to win on goals scored) so let's focus on Ecuador.
-Win by 3 or more more than Ecuador = Through
-Win by 1 or fewer more than Ecuador = Out
-Win by 2 more than Ecuador and we're off to goals scored, Switzerland currently leads by 1
--Win by 2 more than Ecuador, scoring more than or the same amount, ie Ecuador wins 3-2, Switzerland wins 3-0  = Through
--Win by 2 more than Ecuador, but scoring 2 goals fewer, ie Ecuador wins 5-4, Switzerland wins 3-0 = Out
--Win by 2 more than Ecuador, but scoring 1 goal fewer,
Ecuador wins 4-3, Switzerland wins 3-0 and we're off to head to head, Switzerland won 2-1 = Through

Tie + France win = Through
Tie + Ecuador Win = Out
Tie + Ecuador/France Tie = Out on Goal Difference

Lose + Ecuador Win or Tie = Out
Lose + Ecuador Lose = 3 way tie for 2nd and we're off to goal difference so:
-Lose by 2 or more = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 4 or more = Through
-Lose by 1 and Ecuador lose by 2 or less = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3 = 3 way tie on goal difference and on to goals scored, Switzerland are definitely ahead of Honduras if they only lost by 1, and are currently 1 goal ahead of Ecuador so:
--Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3, and Switzerland score more than or the same as Ecuador = Through
--Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3, and Switzerland score 2 or more fewer than Ecuador = Out.
--Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3 and Switzerland score 1 fewer than Ecuador and we're off to head to head. Switzerland won 2-1 = Through

Honduras

Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win + Ecuador Win or Tie = Out
Win + Ecuador lose = 3 way tie for 2nd place off to goal difference, so:
-Win by 1 = Out, either on goal difference behind Ecuador or goals scored behind Switzerland
-Win by 2 and Ecuador Lose by 1 = Out
-Win by 2 or more and have a 5 goal swing against Ecuador, ie Honduras wins 2-0 Ecuador loses 3--0 = Through
-Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador, ie Honduras wins 2-0 Ecuador loses 2-0, and it's tied on points and goal difference so off to goals scored so:
--Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador AND score 3 more than Ecuador, ie Honduras win 3-0, Ecuador lose 1-0 = Through
--Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador, AND score 1 or fewer more than Ecuador, ie Honduras win 3-0, Ecuador lose 3-2 = Out
--Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador, AND score 2 more than Ecuador, ie Honduras win 3-0, Ecuador lose 2-1 and we're off to head to head, Ecuador won 2-1 = Out

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
France Win, Switzerland Win or Switzerland/Honduras Tie = France 1st, Switzerland 2nd
France Win, Honduras Win = France 1st, 3 way tie for 2nd to be settled by goal difference, as detailed above
France/Ecuador Tie, Switzerland Win = France 1st, Switzerland 2nd
France/Ecuador Tie, Switzerland/Honduras Tie or Honduras win = France 1st, Ecuador 2nd
Ecuador Win, Switzerland Win = 3 way tie for 1st to be settled by goal difference as detailed above
Ecuador Win, Switzerland/Honduras Tie or Honduras Win = France and Ecuador Through, 1st place to be decided by goal difference, Ecuador need to win by 4 to claim 1st. 

Group F

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
3
1
2
6
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
1
4
3
2
0
1
1
0
1
-1
1
4
2
0
0
2
1
3
-2
0

Fixtures (Wednesday at 12 Eastern)
Argentina vs Nigeria, Iran vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

What do we know for sure?

Argentina are through, B & H are out.

Who needs what?

Nigeria
Win or Tie = Through
Lose + B & H Win, or B & H/Iran Tie = Through
Lose + Iran win and it goes to goal difference so:
-Lose by 2 or more = Out
-Lose by 1 and Iran wins by more than 1 = Out
-Lose by 1 and Iran wins by 1 and it goes to goals scored so:
--Score the same or more than Iran = Through
--Score 2 or more less than Iran = Out
--Score 1 less than Iran and it goes to head to head record, which is all tied, so it's Drawing of Lots - Win= Through, Lose = Out

Iran
Lose or Tie = Out
Win + Nigeria Win or Nigeria/Argentina tie = Out
Win + Nigeria Lose and it goes to goal difference so:
-Win by 2 = Through
-Win by 1 and Nigeria loses by 2 or more = Through
-Win by 1 and Nigeria loses by 1 and it goes to goals scored so:
--Score 2 more than Nigeria = Through
--Score the same or less than Nigeria = Out
--Score 1 more than Nigeria and it goes to head to head record, which is all tied, so it's Drawing of Lots - Win= Through, Lose = Out

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Argentina Win, Iran win = Argentina 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Nigeria and Iran, as detailed above
Argentina Win, B & H win or B & H/Iran Tie = Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd
Argentina/Nigeria Tie + Any result = Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd
Nigeria Win + Any Result = Nigeria 1st, Argentina 2nd.

Group G

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
1
1
0
6
2
4
4
2
2
1
1
0
4
3
1
4
3
2
0
1
1
3
4
-1
1
4
2
0
1
1
2
6
-4
1

Fixtures (Thursday at 12 Eastern)
Germany vs USA, Ghana vs Portugal

What do we know for sure?

We were very close to USA through and Portugal out, but alas, nothing, we know nothing, everyone could still go through, everyone could still get knocked out.

Who needs what?

Germany
Win = Through in 1st
Tie = Through in 1st
Lose and Ghana/Portugal Tie = Through in 2nd
Lose and Ghana Win and we're off to goal difference, Germany currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Lose and Ghana Win with a 4 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Through
-Lose and Ghana Win with a 6 goal swing in goal difference = Out
-Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and we're off to goals scored, Germany currently has 3 more goals, so:
--Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and do better than 2 goals fewer than Ghana ie Germany lose 2-4 and Ghana Win 3-0= Through
--Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and score 4 or more fewer than Ghana ie germany loses 1-0, Ghana wins 4-0 = Out
--Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and score 3 fewer than Ghana, ie Germany loses 1-2 and Ghana wins 4-0 and it's head to head, which was a tie, so drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out
Lose and Portugal Win and we're off to goal difference, Germany currently has an 8 goal advantage, so:
-Lose and Portugal Win with a 7 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Through
-Lose and Portugal Win with a 9 goals or more swing in goal difference = Out
-Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference and it's off to goals scored, Germany currently has 4 more goals, so:
--Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference, and score up to 3 fewer than Portugal ie Germany lose 1-5, Portugal win 4-0 = Through
--Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference, and score 5 or more fewer than Portugal, ie Germany lose 4-0, Portugal win 5-1 = Out
--Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference, and score 4 fewer than Portugal, ie Germany loses 4-0, Portugal wins 4-0 and it's head to head, Germany won 4-0 = Through.

USA
Win = Through in 1st
Tie = Through in 2nd
Lose and Ghana/Portugal Tie = Through in 2nd
Lose and Ghana Win and we're off to goal difference for 2nd, USA currently has a 2 goal advantage so:
-Lose by more than 1 and Ghana Win = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 2 or more = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 1 more goal, so:
--Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and score the same amount or more than Ghana ie USA loses 1-2 Ghana wins 1-0 = Through
--Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and score 2 or more fewer than Ghana, ie USA loses 1-0, Ghana wins 2-1 = Out
--Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and score 1 fewer than Ghana, ie USA loses 1-0, Ghana wins 1-0 and it's head to head, USA won 2-1 = Through.
Lose and Portugal Win and we're off to goal difference, USA currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Lose and Portugal Win, with a 4 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Through
-
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 6 goals or more swing in goal difference = Out
-
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference, and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 2 more goals, so:
--
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference and score more, the same amount or 1 fewer goal than Portugal, ie USA loses 2-4, Portugal wins 3-0 = Through
-
-Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference and score 3 or more fewer than Portugal, ie USA loses 1-2, Portugal wins 4-0 = Out
--
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference and score 2 fewer than Portugal, ie USA loses 0-3, Portugal wins 2-0 and we're off to head to head which was a tie, so drawing of lots, win = Through, Lose = Out

Ghana
Lose= Out
Tie = Out
Win and USA/Germany Tie = Out
Win and Germany Win and it's tied with USA, off to goal difference, USA currently has a 2 goal advantage, so:
-Win by more than 1 and USA Lose = Through
-Win by 1 and USA Lose by 2 or more = Through
-Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 1 more goal, so:
--Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and score 2 more than USA, ie Ghana wins 2-1, USA loses 1-0 = Through
--Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and score the same amount of goals or fewer, ie Ghana win 1-0, USA lose 1-2 = Out
--Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and score 1 fewer than Ghana, ie USA loses 1-0, Ghana wins 1-0 and it's head to head, USA won 2-1 = Through.
Win and USA Win and it's tied with Germany, off to goal difference, Germany currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Win and Germany Lose with a 4 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Out
-Win and Germany Lose with a 6 goals or more swing in goal difference = Through
-Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and we're off to goals scored, Germany currently has 3 more goals, so:
--Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and score 4 or more more than Germany, ie Ghana wins 4-0, Germany loses 0-1 = Through
--Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and score 2 or fewer more than Germany, ie Ghana wins 4-0, Germany loses 2-3 = Out
--Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and score 3 more than Germany, ie Ghana win 4-0 Germany lose 1-2 and it's off to head to head, which was a tie so drawing of lots, Win = Through, lose= Out

Portugal
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and USA/Germany Tie = Out
Win and Germany Win and it's tied with USA so off to goal difference, USA currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Win and USA Lose with a 4 goals or fewer goal difference swing = Out
-Win and USA Lose with a 6 goals or more goal difference swing = Through
-Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 2 more, so:
--Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and score 1 more or fewer than USA, ie Portugal wins 3-0, USA loses 2-4 = Out
--Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and score 3 or more more than USA, ie Portugal wins 3-0, USA loses 0-2 = Through
--Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and score 2 more than USA, ie Portugal wins 3-0, USA loses 1-3 and we're off to head to head which was a tie, so drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out
Win and USA Win and it's tied with Germany so off to goal difference, Germany currently has an 8 goal advantage, so:
-Win and Germany Lose with a 7 goals or fewer goal difference swing = Out
-Win and Germany Lose with a 9 goals or more goal difference swing = Through
-Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing, and we're off to goals scored, Germany currently has 4 more, so:
--Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing and score 3 or fewer more than Germany, ie Portugal win 4-0, Germany lose 1-5 = Out
--Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing and score 5 or more more than Germany, ie portugal wins 5-0, Germany loses 0-3 = Through
--
Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing and score 4 more than Germany, ie Portugal win 4-0, Germany Lose 0-4, it's off to head to head, Germany won 4-0 =Out.

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Germany Win, Ghana Win = Germany 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Ghana and USA as detailed above
Germany Win, Ghana/Portugal Tie = Germany 1st, USA 2nd
Germany Win, Portugal Win = Germany 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Portugal and USA as detailed above
Germany/USA Tie + Any Result = Germany 1st, USA 2nd
USA Win, Ghana Win = USA 1st,
2nd place goes to GD between Ghana and Germany as detailed above
USA Win, Ghana/Portugal Tie = USA 1st, Germany 2nd
USA Win, Portugal Win =
2nd place goes to GD between Portugal and Germany as detailed above

Group H

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
3
1
2
6
2
2
1
0
1
5
4
1
3
3
2
0
1
1
1
2
-1
1
4
2
0
1
1
3
5
-2
1

Fixtures (Thursday at 4 Eastern)
Belgium vs South Korea
Algeria vs Russia

What we know for sure

Belgium are through

Who needs what?

Algeria
Win = Through
Lose = Out
Tie and Belgium win or Belgium/South Korea Tie = Through
Tie and South Korea Win and we're off to goal difference, Algeria currently has 3 goal advantage, so:
-Tie and South Korea Win by 2 or less = Through
-Tie and South Korea Win by 4 or more = Out
-Tie and South Korea Win by 3, and we're off to goals scored, Algeria currently have 2 more, so:
-
-Tie and South Korea Win by 3 and score more, the same amount or 1 fewer than South Korea, ie Algeria Tie 2-2, South Korea Win 3-0 = Through
--Tie and South Korea Win by 3 and score 3 or more fewer than South Korea, ie Algeria Tie 0-0, South Korea Win 3-0 = Out
--Tie and South Korea win by 3 and score 2 fewer than South Korea, ie Algeria Tie 1-1, South Korea wins 3-0 and we're off to head to head, Algeria won 4-2 = Through

South Korea
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and Algeria Win = Out
Win and Algeria/Russia Tie = Tied for 2nd with Algeria, off to goal difference, Algeria currently lead by 3 so:
-Win by 4 or more and Algeria/Russia Tie = Through
-
Win by 2 or less and Algeria/Russia Tie = Out
-
Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie and we're off to goals scored, Algeria currently have 2 more so:
--
Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie, and score 3 or more more than Algeria, ie South Korea Win 3-0 Algeria Tie 0-0 = Through
--
Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie, and score 1 more than Algeria, ie South korea win 3-0, Algeria Tie 2-2 = Out
--Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie, and score 2 more than Algeria, ie South Korea Win 3-0, Algeria Tie 1-1 we're off to head to head, Algeria won 4-2 = Out
Win and Russia Win = Tied for 2nd with Russia, of to goal difference, Russia currently have a 1 goal advantage, so:
-
Win by 2 or more goals more than Russia win by = Through
-
Win by the same amount or fewer than Russia wins by = Out
-Win by 1 more than Russia wins by and we're off to goals scored, South Korea has 2 more goals so:
-
-Win by 1 more than Russia wins by, and score more, the same amount or 1 goal fewer than Russia, ie South Korea Wins 2-0, Russia wins 3-2 = Through
--Win by 1 more than Russia wins by and score 3 or more goals fewer than Russia, ie South korea wins 2-0, Russia wins 5-4 = Out
--Win by 1 more than Russia wins by and score 2 fewer than Russia, ie South Korea wins 2-0, Russia wins 4-3 and it's head to head which was a tie so drawing of lots, Win = Through, lose = Out

Russia
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and Belgium Win or Belgium/South Korea Tie = Through
Win and South Korea Win = Tied for 2nd with South Korea and off to goal difference, Russia currently have a 1 goal advantage so:
-Win by more than or the same as South Korea = Through
-Win by 2 less than South Korea wins by = Out
-Win by 1 less than South Korea and we're off to goals scored, South Korea has 2 more goals, so:
--Win by 1 less than South Korea and score 3 more goals than South Korea, ie Russia wins 5-4, South Korea wins 2-0 = Through
--Win by 1 less than South Korea and score less than, the same as or 1 more than South Korea, ie Russia wins 3-2, South Korea wins 2-0 = Out
--Win by 1 less than South Korea and score 2 more goals than South Korea, ie Russia wins 4-3, South Korea wins 2-0 and it's head to head which was a tie so drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out.

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Belgium Win, Algeria Win or Algeria/Russia Tie = Belgium 1st, Algeria 2nd
Belgium Win, Russia Win = Belgium 1st, Russia 2nd
Belgium/South Korea Tie, Algeria Win or Algeria/Russia Tie = Belgium 1st, Algeria 2nd
Belgium/South Korea Tie, Russia Win = Belgium 1st, Russia 2nd
South Korea Win, Algeria Win = Belgium and Algeria through, 1st place decided by goal difference
South Korea Win, Algeria/Russia Tie = Belgium 1st, 2nd place goes to goal difference between South Korea and Algeria as detailed above
South Korea Win, Russia Win = Belgium 1st, 2nd place goes to goal difference between South Korea and Russia, as detailed above. 

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