World Cup, Brazil 2014, Group E and F qualification scenarios, Day 14 Open Thread

A shoulder to the teeth probably is quite painful. - Matthias Hangst

Yesterday, things got weird, Suarez biting, Greece scoring, twice! and qualifying, and Italy getting knocked out. Today's got to be a bit of a letdown right?

Well, these final group games, where everything's on the line and one moment can instantly change things are quite good aren't they. Not the football per se, there's been a noticeable dip in quality here, but the drama is fantastic. the second halves have been riveting so far. First the Dutch putting away Chile, followed by Mexico finally getting the upper hand on Croatia and flirting with toppling Brazil.

Yesterday ended with the Cote d'Ivoire seemingly scraping into the last 16 before an injury time penalty saw that change to Greece. Greece! Goalless and probably the least threatening looking side through the first two matches, when it counted they got the job done, hitting the bar or post 3 times as well as scoring twice. They'll now be playing Costa Rica in the next round. That's right, one of Costa Rica or Greece will be in the quarter finals, meanwhile 1 of Brazil and Chile will be going home, as will 1 of Colombia and Uruguay.

How did Uruguay get into that conversation? Third in the group to start the day and heading deep into the second half that hadn't changed despite a red card to Italian Claudio Marchisio. Then the drama happened. Diego Godin headed home an 81st minute corner too give Uruguay the lead, suddenly they were in 2nd place and they held the lead comfortably enough to send Italy home, the Coach announcing his retirement in the immediate post game press conference.

And oh yeah, something about somebody biting someone. It's pretty clear that that is what happened despite whatever denials the Suarez camp is coming up with. Now I've made clear my enjoyment of Luis Suarez and his antics, I enjoy a good pantomime villain that the world can hate, I generally have very little time for 'won't somebody please think of the children' moralising and I'm quite on board with what Cathal Kelly's saying in this article, but this isn't good at all. Add it to his previous indiscretions, both bitey and otherwise and he deserves what's coming to him. Villains only work if there are actually rules to be broken, and if they get captured often enough and punished enough to maintain an overall sense of order, a pantomime where the villian gets away with everything and prevails would be a terrible idea. I'll miss him for the rest of the tournament and however long he's out, but knocking England out, helping knock Italy out and providing that kind of moment (and let's not forget his heroic handball last time around) isn't a bad way at all to make his mark (literally) on the tournament. Godspeed Luis, I look forward to your next adventure.

Today? Well, I can't imagine it's going to be anywhere near as good. We start with group F, Nigeria vs Argentina, and Iran vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. the obvious big team to cheer against, Argentina are already qualified, so there's nothing to hope for there. It's  basically down to Iran vs Nigeria, Nigeria with 4 points and +1 goal difference with 1 goal scored. Iran with 1 point and -1 with 0 goals scored. Iran Win 1-0 and Nigeria lose 1-0 (which seems very plausible, and we'll be drawing lots, so that's  what I'm cheering for.

Then it's to group E (WHY CAN'T FIFA SPELL?) for France vs Ecuador and Switzerland vs Honduras.  France aren't technically through, but really they are so not much to cheer foe there, as long as Honduras don't  get through, I'm fine with either Ecuador or Switzerland. There's all sorts of potential for weird qualification maths in this one as 2 teams could end up tied with 3 points, or 3 teams tied with 6. All of that, along with the group F scenarios are below as always.

Anyway, surprise me today, surprise me. I'm not sure how you will, but I hope you do.

Group E

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
8
2
6
6
2
2
1
0
1
3
3
0
3
3
2
1
0
1
4
6
-2
3
4
2
0
0
2
1
5
-4
0

Fixtures (Wednesday 4pm)

France vs Ecuador, Honduras vs Switzerland

What do we know for sure?

Nothing. We know Nothing. Everyone could still qualify, everyone could still get knocked out. This will get complicated.

Who needs what?

France
Win = Through
Tie = Through
Lose + Switzerland Lose or Tie = Through
Lose + Switzerland Win and it'd be a 3 way tie with 6 points and off to Goal Difference, so:
-Lose by 2 goals or less, and they're guaranteed to finish above Ecuador on Goal Difference = Through
-Lose by 3 and they'd be tied on Goal Difference, but guaranteed to finish above Ecuador on Goals Scored = Through
-Lose by 4 or more, they'd be behind Ecuador on Goal Difference, but Switzerland would still need to make up the gap, there'd need to be an 9 goal swing for Switzerland to overtake them, ie France lose by 4, Switzerland win by 3 = Through, France lose by 4, Switzerland win by 5 = Out. 
-Lose by 4 or more and Switzerland win with an exact 8 goal swing, it'd be off to goals scored, France currently has 4 more goals than Switzerland, so Switzerland would need to score 5 more than France. 
-If it goes down to head to head between France and Switzerland, France = Through.
Basically France not qualifying would be the craziest thing ever.

Ecuador
Win + Switzerland Lose or Tie = Through
Win + Switzerland win = 3 way tie for 1st with 6 points, and off to Goal Difference, so:
-Win by 4 or more = Through ahead of France
-Win by less than 4, but with a margin of more, the same amount or even 1 goal fewer than Switzerland = Through ahead of Switzerland.
-Win by less than 4, and by 3 or more fewer than Switzerland = Out
-Win by less than 4, and by 2 fewer than Switzerland it's down to goals scored between the 2, and Switzerland already have a 1 goal lead, so:
--Score 2 more than Switzerland = Through
--Score the same or fewer than Switzerland = Out
--Score one more than Switzerland and it's off to head to head. Switzerland won 2-1  = Out

Tie + Honduras Win = Through
Tie + Switzerland Win = Out
Tie + Switzerland Tie = Through on Goal Difference

Lose + Switzerland Win or Tie = Out
Lose + Honduras Win = 3 way tie for 2nd place with Switzerland and Honduras, and it's off to goal difference, so;
There'd have to be a 4 goal swing between Ecuador and Honduras, so:
-Lose by 1 and Honduras win by less than 3 = Through
-Lose by 2 and Honduras win by 1 = Through
-Lose by 3 and Honduras win by more than 1 = Out
-Lose by 4 = Out
If the exact 4 goal swing happens, there's still plenty of options, so:
-Lose by 1, Honduras wins by 3, or lose by 2 and Honduras wins by 2, it's off to goals scored between Ecuador and Honduras, Ecuador currently has a 2 goal headstart. 
--Ecuador scores more than, the same as or 1 fewer than Honduras = Through
--Ecuador scores 3 or more fewer than Honduras = Out
--Ecuador score 2 fewer than Honduras and it's off to head to head, Ecuador won 2-1 = Through

Here's where it could get crazy,
-Lose by 3, and Honduras wins by 1, Switzerland are back in it, as they'd all be tied on -3 goal difference, and it's off to goals scored. Switzerland currently has 4 goals, Ecuador 3, Honduras 1. As Honduras is only winning by 1, Switzerland would definitely finish above Honduras in this scenario so Ecuador has to finish above Switzerland so:
--Score 2 more than Switzerland, ie
Ecuador loses 2-5, Switzerland loses 1-0 = Through
--Score the same as or fewer than Switzerland = Out
--Score 1 more than Switzerland, ie Ecuador loses 2-5 Switzerland loses 1-2, and it's off to head to head. Switzerland won 2-1= Out

Switzerland

Win + Ecuador Lose or Tie = Through
Win + Ecuador Win = 3 way tie for 1st place and off to Goal Difference, so;
There's a 9 goal swing needed to overtake France on goal difference, (or 8 goal swing to tie GD AND scoring 5 more to win on goals scored) so let's focus on Ecuador.
-Win by 3 or more more than Ecuador = Through
-Win by 1 or fewer more than Ecuador = Out
-Win by 2 more than Ecuador and we're off to goals scored, Switzerland currently leads by 1
--Win by 2 more than Ecuador, scoring more than or the same amount, ie Ecuador wins 3-2, Switzerland wins 3-0  = Through
--Win by 2 more than Ecuador, but scoring 2 goals fewer, ie Ecuador wins 5-4, Switzerland wins 3-0 = Out
--Win by 2 more than Ecuador, but scoring 1 goal fewer,
Ecuador wins 4-3, Switzerland wins 3-0 and we're off to head to head, Switzerland won 2-1 = Through

Tie + France win = Through
Tie + Ecuador Win = Out
Tie + Ecuador/France Tie = Out on Goal Difference

Lose + Ecuador Win or Tie = Out
Lose + Ecuador Lose = 3 way tie for 2nd and we're off to goal difference so:
-Lose by 2 or more = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 4 or more = Through
-Lose by 1 and Ecuador lose by 2 or less = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3 = 3 way tie on goal difference and on to goals scored, Switzerland are definitely ahead of Honduras if they only lost by 1, and are currently 1 goal ahead of Ecuador so:
--Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3, and Switzerland score more than or the same as Ecuador = Through
--Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3, and Switzerland score 2 or more fewer than Ecuador = Out.
--Lose by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3 and Switzerland score 1 fewer than Ecuador and we're off to head to head. Switzerland won 2-1 = Through

Honduras

Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win + Ecuador Win or Tie = Out
Win + Ecuador lose = 3 way tie for 2nd place off to goal difference, so:
-Win by 1 = Out, either on goal difference behind Ecuador or goals scored behind Switzerland
-Win by 2 and Ecuador Lose by 1 = Out
-Win by 2 or more and have a 5 goal swing against Ecuador, ie Honduras wins 2-0 Ecuador loses 3--0 = Through
-Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador, ie Honduras wins 2-0 Ecuador loses 2-0, and it's tied on points and goal difference so off to goals scored so:
--Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador AND score 3 more than Ecuador, ie Honduras win 3-0, Ecuador lose 1-0 = Through
--Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador, AND score 1 or fewer more than Ecuador, ie Honduras win 3-0, Ecuador lose 3-2 = Out
--Win by 2 or more and have a 4 goal swing against Ecuador, AND score 2 more than Ecuador, ie Honduras win 3-0, Ecuador lose 2-1 and we're off to head to head, Ecuador won 2-1 = Out

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
France Win, Switzerland Win or Switzerland/Honduras Tie = France 1st, Switzerland 2nd
France Win, Honduras Win = France 1st, 3 way tie for 2nd to be settled by goal difference, as detailed above
France/Ecuador Tie, Switzerland Win = France 1st, Switzerland 2nd
France/Ecuador Tie, Switzerland/Honduras Tie or Honduras win = France 1st, Ecuador 2nd
Ecuador Win, Switzerland Win = 3 way tie for 1st to be settled by goal difference as detailed above
Ecuador Win, Switzerland/Honduras Tie or Honduras Win = France and Ecuador Through, 1st place to be decided by goal difference, Ecuador need to win by 4 to claim 1st. 

Group F

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
3
1
2
6
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
1
4
3
2
0
1
1
0
1
-1
1
4
2
0
0
2
1
3
-2
0

Fixtures (Wednesday at 12 Eastern)
Argentina vs Nigeria, Iran vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

What do we know for sure?

Argentina are through, B & H are out.

Who needs what?

Nigeria
Win or Tie = Through
Lose + B & H Win, or B & H/Iran Tie = Through
Lose + Iran win and it goes to goal difference so:
-Lose by 2 or more = Out
-Lose by 1 and Iran wins by more than 1 = Out
-Lose by 1 and Iran wins by 1 and it goes to goals scored so:
--Score the same or more than Iran = Through
--Score 2 or more less than Iran = Out
--Score 1 less than Iran and it goes to head to head record, which is all tied, so it's Drawing of Lots - Win= Through, Lose = Out

Iran
Lose or Tie = Out
Win + Nigeria Win or Nigeria/Argentina tie = Out
Win + Nigeria Lose and it goes to goal difference so:
-Win by 2 = Through
-Win by 1 and Nigeria loses by 2 or more = Through
-Win by 1 and Nigeria loses by 1 and it goes to goals scored so:
--Score 2 more than Nigeria = Through
--Score the same or less than Nigeria = Out
--Score 1 more than Nigeria and it goes to head to head record, which is all tied, so it's Drawing of Lots - Win= Through, Lose = Out

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Argentina Win, Iran win = Argentina 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Nigeria and Iran, as detailed above
Argentina Win, B & H win or B & H/Iran Tie = Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd
Argentina/Nigeria Tie + Any result = Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd
Nigeria Win + Any Result = Nigeria 1st, Argentina 2nd.

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