World Cup, Brazil 2014, Group G and H Qualification scenarios, Day 15 Open Thread

Man, Hulk Hogan made this look so easy. - Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday was a bit of a letdown, but there's potential for fireworks today.

So, not much really happened yesterday did it. Messi played well again, good for him, and well done Nigeria to back into that 2nd spot in group F. Group E, well done Switzerland, and especially Xherdan Shaqiri for clinching their place alongside France, and the most satisfying bit of the day is that that 3-0 win meant Honduras' campaign ended with 0 wins, and a goals record of 8-1 against, which is satisfying.  So it's France vs Nigeria and Argentina vs Switzerland in the last 16.

In other news, Luis Suarez picked up a 9 match ban (presumably internationals, do friendlies count? If so, expect Uruguay to get a lot of friendlies in before the next Copa America), and 4 months away from any football so that's a big chunk of Liverpool's next season as well.

Today, well first up we get group G, everyone in the group can qualify, everyone could get knocked out. A draw for Germany and USA would see both teams go through, but I really can't see them trying for that, maybe if it gets late in the game and it's tied they won't be trying superhard to win, but certainly won't be colluding from the start. Can Michael Bradley Put in a similar all action performance, just without the crucial error this time? What formation will Jurgen Klinsmann go with with Jozy Altidore still out?  Definitely an interesting game ahead there. In the other game it's Portugal vs Ghana, the Portugese just escaped the last game with their hopes intact, can the capitalise on this second chance and break US (or German maybe, but let's not be silly) hearts again? Can Ronaldo step up and actually do something? Messi has, Neymar has, but he's cut a sullen and only occasionally effective figure so far. Can he change that? You've got to think he's desperate for a good showboating flex, and there's suggestions he'll be playing up front for Portugal rather than on the wing. We shall see.

In Group H, it's Algeria v Russia and Belgium vs South Korea. Belgium are already through, so it's probably all going to come down to that Algeria v Russia game. After crushing the South Koreans, a tie would be more than enough for Algeria to make their way through.

You can get all the ridiculous details of what could happen below. but before you do, why not read this article about the World Cup and Julio Cesar, or listen to the Vocal Minority discuss the world cup so far as well as previewing TFC.

Group G

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
1
1
0
6
2
4
4
2
2
1
1
0
4
3
1
4
3
2
0
1
1
3
4
-1
1
4
2
0
1
1
2
6
-4
1

Fixtures (Thursday at 12 Eastern)
Germany vs USA, Ghana vs Portugal

What do we know for sure?

We were very close to USA through and Portugal out, but alas, nothing, we know nothing, everyone could still go through, everyone could still get knocked out.

Who needs what?

Germany
Win = Through in 1st
Tie = Through in 1st
Lose and Ghana/Portugal Tie = Through in 2nd
Lose and Ghana Win and we're off to goal difference, Germany currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Lose and Ghana Win with a 4 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Through
-Lose and Ghana Win with a 6 goal swing in goal difference = Out
-Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and we're off to goals scored, Germany currently has 3 more goals, so:
--Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and do better than 2 goals fewer than Ghana ie Germany lose 2-4 and Ghana Win 3-0= Through
--Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and score 4 or more fewer than Ghana ie germany loses 1-0, Ghana wins 4-0 = Out
--Lose and Ghana Win with a 5 goal swing in goal difference, and score 3 fewer than Ghana, ie Germany loses 1-2 and Ghana wins 4-0 and it's head to head, which was a tie, so drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out
Lose and Portugal Win and we're off to goal difference, Germany currently has an 8 goal advantage, so:
-Lose and Portugal Win with a 7 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Through
-Lose and Portugal Win with a 9 goals or more swing in goal difference = Out
-Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference and it's off to goals scored, Germany currently has 4 more goals, so:
--Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference, and score up to 3 fewer than Portugal ie Germany lose 1-5, Portugal win 4-0 = Through
--Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference, and score 5 or more fewer than Portugal, ie Germany lose 4-0, Portugal win 5-1 = Out
--Lose and Portugal Win with a 8 goals swing in goal difference, and score 4 fewer than Portugal, ie Germany loses 4-0, Portugal wins 4-0 and it's head to head, Germany won 4-0 = Through.

USA
Win = Through in 1st
Tie = Through in 2nd
Lose and Ghana/Portugal Tie = Through in 2nd
Lose and Ghana Win and we're off to goal difference for 2nd, USA currently has a 2 goal advantage so:
-Lose by more than 1 and Ghana Win = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 2 or more = Out
-Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 1 more goal, so:
--Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and score the same amount or more than Ghana ie USA loses 1-2 Ghana wins 1-0 = Through
--Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and score 2 or more fewer than Ghana, ie USA loses 1-0, Ghana wins 2-1 = Out
--Lose by 1 and Ghana Win by 1 and score 1 fewer than Ghana, ie USA loses 1-0, Ghana wins 1-0 and it's head to head, USA won 2-1 = Through.
Lose and Portugal Win and we're off to goal difference, USA currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Lose and Portugal Win, with a 4 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Through
-
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 6 goals or more swing in goal difference = Out
-
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference, and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 2 more goals, so:
--
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference and score more, the same amount or 1 fewer goal than Portugal, ie USA loses 2-4, Portugal wins 3-0 = Through
-
-Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference and score 3 or more fewer than Portugal, ie USA loses 1-2, Portugal wins 4-0 = Out
--
Lose and Portugal Win, with a 5 goals swing in goal difference and score 2 fewer than Portugal, ie USA loses 0-3, Portugal wins 2-0 and we're off to head to head which was a tie, so drawing of lots, win = Through, Lose = Out

Ghana
Lose= Out
Tie = Out
Win and USA/Germany Tie = Out
Win and Germany Win and it's tied with USA, off to goal difference, USA currently has a 2 goal advantage, so:
-Win by more than 1 and USA Lose = Through
-Win by 1 and USA Lose by 2 or more = Through
-Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 1 more goal, so:
--Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and score 2 more than USA, ie Ghana wins 2-1, USA loses 1-0 = Through
--Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and score the same amount of goals or fewer, ie Ghana win 1-0, USA lose 1-2 = Out
--Win by 1 and USA Lose by 1 and score 1 fewer than Ghana, ie USA loses 1-0, Ghana wins 1-0 and it's head to head, USA won 2-1 = Through.
Win and USA Win and it's tied with Germany, off to goal difference, Germany currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Win and Germany Lose with a 4 goals or fewer swing in goal difference = Out
-Win and Germany Lose with a 6 goals or more swing in goal difference = Through
-Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and we're off to goals scored, Germany currently has 3 more goals, so:
--Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and score 4 or more more than Germany, ie Ghana wins 4-0, Germany loses 0-1 = Through
--Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and score 2 or fewer more than Germany, ie Ghana wins 4-0, Germany loses 2-3 = Out
--Win and Germany Lose with a 5 goal swing in goal difference and score 3 more than Germany, ie Ghana win 4-0 Germany lose 1-2 and it's off to head to head, which was a tie so drawing of lots, Win = Through, lose= Out

Portugal
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and USA/Germany Tie = Out
Win and Germany Win and it's tied with USA so off to goal difference, USA currently has a 5 goal advantage, so:
-Win and USA Lose with a 4 goals or fewer goal difference swing = Out
-Win and USA Lose with a 6 goals or more goal difference swing = Through
-Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and we're off to goals scored, USA currently has 2 more, so:
--Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and score 1 more or fewer than USA, ie Portugal wins 3-0, USA loses 2-4 = Out
--Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and score 3 or more more than USA, ie Portugal wins 3-0, USA loses 0-2 = Through
--Win and USA Lose with a 5 goals goal difference swing, and score 2 more than USA, ie Portugal wins 3-0, USA loses 1-3 and we're off to head to head which was a tie, so drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out
Win and USA Win and it's tied with Germany so off to goal difference, Germany currently has an 8 goal advantage, so:
-Win and Germany Lose with a 7 goals or fewer goal difference swing = Out
-Win and Germany Lose with a 9 goals or more goal difference swing = Through
-Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing, and we're off to goals scored, Germany currently has 4 more, so:
--Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing and score 3 or fewer more than Germany, ie Portugal win 4-0, Germany lose 1-5 = Out
--Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing and score 5 or more more than Germany, ie portugal wins 5-0, Germany loses 0-3 = Through
--
Win and Germany Lose and an 8 goals goal difference swing and score 4 more than Germany, ie Portugal win 4-0, Germany Lose 0-4, it's off to head to head, Germany won 4-0 =Out.

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Germany Win, Ghana Win = Germany 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Ghana and USA as detailed above
Germany Win, Ghana/Portugal Tie = Germany 1st, USA 2nd
Germany Win, Portugal Win = Germany 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Portugal and USA as detailed above
Germany/USA Tie + Any Result = Germany 1st, USA 2nd
USA Win, Ghana Win = USA 1st,
2nd place goes to GD between Ghana and Germany as detailed above
USA Win, Ghana/Portugal Tie = USA 1st, Germany 2nd
USA Win, Portugal Win =
2nd place goes to GD between Portugal and Germany as detailed above

Group H

#
Country
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
1
2
2
0
0
3
1
2
6
2
2
1
0
1
5
4
1
3
3
2
0
1
1
1
2
-1
1
4
2
0
1
1
3
5
-2
1

Fixtures (Thursday at 4 Eastern)
Belgium vs South Korea
Algeria vs Russia

What we know for sure

Belgium are through

Who needs what?

Algeria
Win = Through
Lose = Out
Tie and Belgium win or Belgium/South Korea Tie = Through
Tie and South Korea Win and we're off to goal difference, Algeria currently has 3 goal advantage, so:
-Tie and South Korea Win by 2 or less = Through
-Tie and South Korea Win by 4 or more = Out
-Tie and South Korea Win by 3, and we're off to goals scored, Algeria currently have 2 more, so:
-
-Tie and South Korea Win by 3 and score more, the same amount or 1 fewer than South Korea, ie Algeria Tie 2-2, South Korea Win 3-0 = Through
--Tie and South Korea Win by 3 and score 3 or more fewer than South Korea, ie Algeria Tie 0-0, South Korea Win 3-0 = Out
--Tie and South Korea win by 3 and score 2 fewer than South Korea, ie Algeria Tie 1-1, South Korea wins 3-0 and we're off to head to head, Algeria won 4-2 = Through

South Korea
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and Algeria Win = Out
Win and Algeria/Russia Tie = Tied for 2nd with Algeria, off to goal difference, Algeria currently lead by 3 so:
-Win by 4 or more and Algeria/Russia Tie = Through
-
Win by 2 or less and Algeria/Russia Tie = Out
-
Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie and we're off to goals scored, Algeria currently have 2 more so:
--
Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie, and score 3 or more more than Algeria, ie South Korea Win 3-0 Algeria Tie 0-0 = Through
--
Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie, and score 1 more than Algeria, ie South korea win 3-0, Algeria Tie 2-2 = Out
--Win by 3 and Algeria/Russia Tie, and score 2 more than Algeria, ie South Korea Win 3-0, Algeria Tie 1-1 we're off to head to head, Algeria won 4-2 = Out
Win and Russia Win = Tied for 2nd with Russia, of to goal difference, Russia currently have a 1 goal advantage, so:
-
Win by 2 or more goals more than Russia win by = Through
-
Win by the same amount or fewer than Russia wins by = Out
-Win by 1 more than Russia wins by and we're off to goals scored, South Korea has 2 more goals so:
-
-Win by 1 more than Russia wins by, and score more, the same amount or 1 goal fewer than Russia, ie South Korea Wins 2-0, Russia wins 3-2 = Through
--Win by 1 more than Russia wins by and score 3 or more goals fewer than Russia, ie South korea wins 2-0, Russia wins 5-4 = Out
--Win by 1 more than Russia wins by and score 2 fewer than Russia, ie South Korea wins 2-0, Russia wins 4-3 and it's head to head which was a tie so drawing of lots, Win = Through, lose = Out

Russia
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and Belgium Win or Belgium/South Korea Tie = Through
Win and South Korea Win = Tied for 2nd with South Korea and off to goal difference, Russia currently have a 1 goal advantage so:
-Win by more than or the same as South Korea = Through
-Win by 2 less than South Korea wins by = Out
-Win by 1 less than South Korea and we're off to goals scored, South Korea has 2 more goals, so:
--Win by 1 less than South Korea and score 3 more goals than South Korea, ie Russia wins 5-4, South Korea wins 2-0 = Through
--Win by 1 less than South Korea and score less than, the same as or 1 more than South Korea, ie Russia wins 3-2, South Korea wins 2-0 = Out
--Win by 1 less than South Korea and score 2 more goals than South Korea, ie Russia wins 4-3, South Korea wins 2-0 and it's head to head which was a tie so drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out.

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Belgium Win, Algeria Win or Algeria/Russia Tie = Belgium 1st, Algeria 2nd
Belgium Win, Russia Win = Belgium 1st, Russia 2nd
Belgium/South Korea Tie, Algeria Win or Algeria/Russia Tie = Belgium 1st, Algeria 2nd
Belgium/South Korea Tie, Russia Win = Belgium 1st, Russia 2nd
South Korea Win, Algeria Win = Belgium and Algeria through, 1st place decided by goal difference
South Korea Win, Algeria/Russia Tie = Belgium 1st, 2nd place goes to goal difference between South Korea and Algeria as detailed above
South Korea Win, Russia Win = Belgium 1st, 2nd place goes to goal difference between South Korea and Russia, as detailed above.

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