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Around SBN: BJ Penn Says He's Not Interested in Fighting Josh Koscheck

Stat Attack

Constantly playing catch-up makes TFC look better than they are.

A constant refrain over the last few weeks as Toronto FC just keep losing, as well as talk of bad luck, is that TFC are playing well and often look really good, better than their 0-7-0 record would suggest. They're attacking and taking the game to the opposition, creating chances, and generally deserving a lot better than they have so far earned. How can a team playing so well be losing so much? Aside from the simple answer of defensive mistakes undoing the good work, there's 2 reasons why TFC's recent games seem to be following that similar script.

First of all, anyone scouting TFC will have noticed that it's really quite easy to score against them. You can sit back, play it safe, and you'll still get plenty of chances on the counter attack against a slow defence playing a suspect offside trap. Failing that, one way or another TFC will eventually gift you a good chance. There's very little necessity to really push them to create chances, and that allows TFC to carry the game, and look like they're on top, both possession and territorial wise.

The second factor, hugely compounding that opposition tendency to sit back and absorb pressure, is that TFC is almost always behind. In any game, the team with the lead will often become more conservative to protect what they have, while the trailing team is forced to be more aggressive and chase the game. This will make them look more urgent and creative, as if they're the better team.

We all know that TFC have been in the lead for just 1 minute so far through 7 games, a quite spectacularly poor 0.2% of the time, but how about the other way around, how much time have TFC spent chasing the game? Here's the amount of time in minutes they've spent ahead, on level terms and behind in each league game so far.

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Toronto FC's Scoring Woes: A Statistical Look

TFC have not seen nearly enough of this so far in the young season.  But do the stats offer any clues as too why?

At this stage we all know that Toronto FC is struggling to find the back of the net in MLS action. They did manage to net 7 goals in their 4 CONCACAF Champions League matches but that is not enough to hide the fact that they have only 2 goals in their first 4 MLS matches.

This is a team that was supposed to have a wealth of attacking talent with the question marks being in the defensive third. Instead the worst possible thing is happening and even the team's strengths are failing to show themselves so far in the season. So how do you explain the lack of goals from an attacking group that boasts Danny Koevermans, Ryan Johnson, Joao Plata, and Luis Silva? Well a look at the stats from the season can show a few basic areas where the team is having struggles.

It is a bit of a puzzling situation that the team has been held off the score sheet twice already this season and the two goals that they do have were basically no more than consolation efforts in games that were already out of reach. Last year after Danny Koevermans and Torsten Frings were signed, TFC was held scoreless only 3 times in their final 13 MLS matches. During that same stretch of games the Reds netted 19 goals which works out to an average of 1.46 goals per game. That number may not seem that high but when you consider that the Seattle Sounders were the top scoring team in MLS last season with 56 goals for and that works out to an average of 1.64 goals per game, it's not too bad. The LA Galaxy won the supporters shield last season with 48 goals or 1.41 goals per game which is a very comparable number to what Toronto FC was achieving.

Before the roster makeover really hit the team they did only manage to score 17 goals in their first 21 goals which is an average of only 0.80 goals per match and that run included the team being held scoreless a staggering 10 times. Those days were supposed to be behind us with all the attacking options on the club but for the first four games of the season they seem to have resurfaced.

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TFC 2012 Schedule: By The Numbers

If we cheer loud enough, we could hopefully play less games on GOL TV? Maybe? Hey! It's crazy enough it may just work! 
(Photo by Abelimages/Getty Images)

Since I saw it done by Once a Metro, I thought it'd be neat for us to break down TFC's 2012 schedule by the numbers, with some help from a recent post by our friends at Sounder at Heart.

6 - the number of mid-week league games. One of which, according to my fellow WTR writer Dave, will clash with a FIFA date (August 15, when Canada plays Jamaica in a World Cup qualifer). It's not the end of the world, but August 15 could be a day that will determine our playoff and/or CONCACAF Champions League fate.

2 - the amount of games TFC will have broadcast across the United States, both at home. (April 21 vs. Chicago Fire on Versus NBC Sports Network, and June 30th vs. the Energy Drinks...er...the New York Red Bulls on Galavision).

TBD - The number of matches on GOL TV. Please, great Buddha/Allah/Jesus, with your great mercy, let it be few.

4 - Matches played on turf (in New England, Vancouver, Washington and the April 7th match in Montreal). Only a few years ago, we could only dream of such a number. This number does not include the turf at FC Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium, since we aren't certain that the Eddies will be whom we're facing -- not yet, anyway.

More numbers after the jump...

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Kocic v Frei, Stats v Opinion

Will Frei be in goal against FC Dallas or giving his thumbs up from the bench?

So that big game against FC Dallas is starting to loom large (pun intended) for Toronto FC.  It is no exaggeration to say that TFC's entire season will come down to this one match.  If the Reds go down to Dallas and lose then this season is just another year where the club failed to make a serious impact in anything other than the Voyageurs Cup.  As much as we love being the best team in Canada many Toronto FC fans are just dying for the chance to celebrate something more.  They will get just that chance when TFC takes on Dallas with a place in the CONCACAF Champions League knock out stages up for grabs for the winner.  In case you are interested in joining in with other fans to watch the game the official Toronto FC viewing party looks like it is going to take place at Real Sports but it is filling up fast so save your seat now and you could have your photo taken with Toronto FC's unprecedented double of trophies!  The other option will be looking for where the supporters groups are planning on watching and joining one of them.

With that game coming up so fast most fans would have a very easy time picking a lineup that they would like to see with the only real question mark being the status of Eckersley's hamstring.  The other area where fans are sure to differ in opinion is who should start in net.  Based on the fact that Winter has started Milos Kocic in the rest of the CCL matches it is probably a safe bet that we will be seeing him again on Tuesday but is that the right move?  Who do the stats suggest would make the better option in goal against FC Dallas? 

Poll
Who would you give the start against FC Dallas?
Stefan Frei
32 votes
Milos Kocic
17 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed

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Stat Attack: Danny Koevermans

Danny does like his jumping celebrations doesn't he? Expect to see a lot more of this sort of thing.

Since making his debut for Toronto FC on July 20th against FC DallasDanny Koevermans has proven to be one of the most consistent strike options that the club has ever had.  We only have a short sample of his work to look at having only made 6 MLS appearances so far but it is safe to say that he is on some of the best scoring form we have seen at this club.

Last week we saw in the list of MLS salaries that Danny is making 1.4 million this season in total compensation which seems to be a pretty good deal for the club when you consider the 6 goals that he has scored since the end of July.  This season the MLS scoring charts are being led by Thierry Henry ($5,600,000) and Landon Donovan ($2,300,000) with 12 goals each but they have played 21 games each and that is a whole lot more then the 7 appearances that Danny K has made for Toronto so far this season.

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Torsten Frings v Julian De Guzman. A chalkboard analysis.

Yellow card for not trying hard enough.

Julian de Guzman is, if not the most polarising figure in Toronto FC history, definitely in the top two along with a certain somebody we'll be playing against next weekend.  Recently it seems like a tipping point has been reached and most people agree that he really isn't playing all that well and plenty think it's probably best to let him go.  But for the first couple of years of his TFC career, there's usually been a lot of people ready to defend him, and while even his staunchest defenders agreed he was paid too much, they often argued that his impact with the team was greater then most people notice, mainly due to the position he was playing.  

A Defensive Midfielder isn't really supposed to be spectacular they'd argue, a lot of what he does is deceptively simple and doesn't get the attention that a great goal, or pass or a really aggressive tackle might, but is still just as valuable.  It's not his fault they said, that he was made a DP and then asked to play a position where, even when he played well and helped the team, it doesn't really stand out.  Using a DP spot on a DM was just a colossally bad decision in and of itself, besides have you seen the people he's been forced to play with?

I'm not saying those people are wrong, hell I made those arguments on his behalf plenty of times myself, but then, along came Torsten Frings.  He's primarily played the same Defensive Midfield position since he got here, and in 4 games now, he's looked genuinely impressive, taking charge of games, making a difference and being everything people thought they were going to get when De Guzman came on board back in 2009.

But that's just a casual impression, relying heavily on intangibles and the sort of opinion that can easily be argued, so let's have a look at some hard facts, comparing their performances via all the stats on MLSSoccer.com's fantastic newish chalkboard feature.

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Waking the Red is a blog about Major League Soccer's Toronto FC, as well as occasional bits about other MLS and Canadian football. Match previews, reports, opinion, bias and plenty of MLSE related cynicism, get it all here.

Manager

Wakingthered-xl_small Duncan Fletcher

Writer Extraordinaire

Rsz_imag0005_small Dave Rowaan

572651_100001742112964_1959490619_n_small John Leung