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TFC qualify if... CCL permutations aplenty

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Pumas UNAM just beat FC Dallas tonight, which leaves group C looking like this with two games left.

Pumas 7
Dallas 7
Toronto 6
Tauro 2.

The most outlandish scenario would see both Tauro and Toronto FC both win their last two games and that would see Toronto win the group with Tauro in 2nd place. But that's not really going to happen is it. I think we should probably assume that both Dallas and Pumas will beat Tauro, which would take them both to ten points, with just the two games involving Toronto remaining to be factored in. The first thing to bear in mind is the tiebreak rules if two or more teams are tied on points. Those that will come into play are in order as follows:

Greater number of points earned in matches between the teams concerned
Greater goal difference in matches between the teams concerned
Greater number of goals scored away from home in matches between the teams concerned
Reapply first three criteria if two or more teams are still tied
Greater goal difference in all group matches

So to keep it simple, if Toronto win both games, they'll have 12 points and finish first in the group, with Pumas winning the tiebreaker to finish second. Yay.

If TFC beat Pumas, then draw with Dallas, it would be Dallas 1st with 11, then TFC and Pumas tied with 10. Of course we lost 4-0 in Mexico City, and there's no way we'll beat Pumas by more than that, so that would mean Pumas in 2nd and TFC out. Booo.

If we tie with Pumas and beat Dallas, then it's Pumas with 11, and TFC and Dallas tied with 10, and here's where we have a chance, they only beat us 1-0, so any TFC win other than 1-0 will give us the tiebreaker, we get 2nd place and we're through. Yay.
If we win that game 1-0, we'll have to move to the goal difference in all group matches tiebreaker, and we're out. Booo.

Anything less than 4 points and TFC finish third. Booo.

So basically TFC need two wins, or a point against Pumas and a win by more than 1-0 against Dallas. Of course if Tauro can get a result in either game (and they tied their first games against both these team, so it's not outlandish) then that changes the whole equation, let's hope they do, otherwise, it's a ridiculously tough road ahead.