World Cup Brazil 2014, Group A and B Qualification scenarios, Day 12 Open Thread

If the last couple of days were a movie, they'd be The Empire Strikes Back, as the powers that be have repeatedly foiled heroic attempts from the lesser countries, Germany tying Ghana, Argentina cruelly beating Iran, Portugal cruelly tying USA to keep their hopes alive. Question is, can they keep the plucky upstarts under their heel as Vader and co failed to do or are we set for more upsets and a full on changing of the guard?

Who knows, but anyway, here we go, the best 4 days of the World Cup. 4 games every day, and almost all of them count. After this there's fewer games, some days where there isn't even one game on, and it slowly winds down a bit, though the importance ratchets up. So sit back, enjoy and revel as the important games just keep on coming and the table standings change with almost every goal. the added importance may mean a little less quality than we've seen so far, but it's more than made up for by the added drama the simultaneous games provide.

That doesn't necessarily apply right off the bat as we start today with group B, and Spain vs Australia means merely who finishes 3rd, while Chile and the Netherlands have both qualified and are just fighting for 1st. That's all at 12 eastern, and then at 4, we do get the potential for all sorts of things to happen. Brazil are playing Cameroon, but that's a pretty foregone conclusion, the big game is Mexico vs Croatia who are probably fighting for 2nd place, though they could both go through if Brazil lose.

Anyway, below are the full qualification scenarios for Group A and B, If you want to see this for all 8 groups, go to this epic breakdown of it all, which I in no way recommend trying to read in one visit, but is a handy thing to have on hand to tell you exactly what each team needs to do, and pretty much every scenario possible for qualifying or not qualifying.

Group A

#	Country	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	1	1	0	3	1	2	4
2	Mexico	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4
3	Croatia	2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3
4	Cameroon	2	0	0	2	0	5	-5	0

Fixtures (Monday at 4 Eastern)

Brazil vs Cameroon, Croatia vs Mexico

What we know for sure:

Cameroon are out.

Who needs what?

Croatia
Win = Through
Tie + Brazil win or tie = Out
Tie + Brazil lose = Through, in 2nd place and ahead of Brazil on goal difference
Lose = Out.

Mexico
Win = Through.
Tie = Through
Lose + Brazil win or tie = Out
Lose AND Brazil lose, and it's down to goal difference for 2nd place, so:
-Lose by same margin as Brazil, or by more = Out
-Lose by 2 goals fewer than Brazil = Through
-Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil, and we move on to goals scored, so:
--Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil and score the same or one more than Brazil = Out
--Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil and score 3 more than Brazil = Through
--Lose by one goal fewer than Brazil and score 2 more than Brazil and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through, Lose = Out

Brazil
Win = Through
Tie = Through
Lose + Mexico Win = Through
Lose + Mexico/Croatia Tie = Out, in 3rd behind Croatia on goal difference
Lose + Croatia win = Tied with Mexico, down to goal difference for 2nd place so:
-Lose by the same margin as Mexico, or lower = Through
-Lose by 2 more goals than Mexico = Out
-Lose by 1 more than Mexico and it's off to goals scored, so:
--Lose by 1 more than Mexico and score more, the same, or 1 less than Mexico = Through
--Lose by 1 more than Mexico and score 3 or more less than Mexico = Out
--Lose by 1 more than Mexico and score 2 less than Mexico and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through in 2nd, Lose = Out

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Brazil Win, Mexico Win = Brazil and Mexico through, 1st depends on GD
Brazil Win, Mexico/Croatia Tie = Brazil 1st Mexico 2nd
Brazil Win, Croatia Win = Brazil 1st, Croatia 2nd
Brazil/Cameroon Tie, Mexico Win = Mexico 1st, Brazil 2nd
Brazil/Cameroon Tie, Mexico/Croatia Tie = Brazil 1st Mexico 2nd
Brazil/Cameroon Tie, Croatia Win = Croatia 1st, Brazil 2nd
Cameroon Win, Mexico Win = Mexico 1st Brazil 2nd
Cameroon Win, Mexico/Croatia Tie = Mexico 1st Croatia 2nd
Cameroon Win, Croatia Win = Croatia 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Brazil and Mexico as detailed above.

Group B

#	Country	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	2	2	0	0	8	3	5	6
2	Chile	2	2	0	0	5	1	4	6
3	Australia	2	0	0	2	3	6	-3	0
4	Spain	2	0	0	2	1	7	-6	0

Fixtures (Monday at 12 Eastern)

Netherlands vs Chile, Spain vs Australia

What we Know for sure:

Hooray for simplicity, Netherlands and Chile are through, Australia and Spain are out.

Who needs what?

Spain vs Australia really doesn't matter. It's just down to if Netherlands or Chile value first place. 
Netherlands Win = Netherlands 1st, Chile 2nd
Tie = Netherlands 1st, Chile 2nd
Chile win = Chile 1st, Netherlands 2nd