World Cup, Brazil 2014: Group C and D Qualification scenarios, Day 13 Open Thread.

Yesterday wasn't the greatest day for quality of games or for drama really was it. Spain vs Australia was pointless, nice for Spain to get a win and for David Villa to score I guess, but whatever. Netherlands vs Chile was also a bit of a damp squib, with two late goals clinching first place for the Dutch.

Group A brought more intrigue as for a short while Cameroon were taking it to Brazil, even equalising between Neymar's 2 goals, but ultimately it was the comfortable game everyone expected for the hosts, though again they didn't look particularly impressive, Neymar aside. The other game had more drama and quite a bit of a nasty edge to as Croatia tried to get the win they needed to overtake Mexico. That didn't happen as Rafa bloody Marquez scored the first and Mexico then countered well and built a 3-0 lead. At that point, Brazil were winning 3-1, so one more goal for Mexico, or for Cameroon and mexico would go top on goal difference. Then Brazil immediately scored, as if they realised they had to, and so the status quo was enforced, Brazil 1st, Mexico 2nd. So we have Brazil vs Chile and Netherlands vs Mexico, both of which have the potential to be very good matches I think.

Today, we start off with group D, England taking on group whipping boys Costa Rica, who need merely a tie to clinch first place. The other game is where the real intrigue is as one of Italy and Uruguay will be going home. Uruguay need the win, whereas Italy can advance with just a tie, so expect some defending and counter attacking there, can Luis Suarez find as much joy against the italians as he did against England's hopeless defence?

Then at 4 it's backwards to group C. Colombia vs Japan, Colombia have qualified but need a point to be sure of first place, Japan absolutely need a win to have a chance of qualifying and ideally win by 2 in case they end up tied on 4 points with Cote d'Ivoire. The other game is Greece vs Cote d'Ivoire, Greece absolutely need a win, Cote d'Ivoire might be OK with a tie, but won't want to risk that. So there should be some good attacking intent here in this one, even from Greece!

Below are the full scenarios for both groups, if you want the entire tournament in one mind bogglingly epic post, it's right here.

Group C

#	Country	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Colombia	2	2	0	0	5	1	4	6
2	Côte d'Ivoire	2	1	0	1	3	3	0	3
3	Japan	2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1
4	Greece	2	0	1	1	0	3	-3	1

Fixtures (Tuesday at 4 Eastern)

Colombia vs Japan, Greece vs Cote d'Ivoire

What we know for sure:

Colombia are through

Who needs what?

Greece
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win + Japan lose or tie = Through
Win + Japan win and we're off to goal difference, so:
-Win by less than 2 goals more than Japan = Out
-Win by 3 or more goals more than Japan = Through
-Win by 2 goals more than japan and we move on to goals scored, so:
--Score the same or less than japan = Out
--Score 2 more than Japan = Through
--Score 1 more than Japan, and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through in 2nd, Lose = Out

Japan
Lose = Out
Tie = Out
Win and Cote d'Ivoire Win = Out
Win and Cote d'Ivoire/Greece Tie = tied for 2nd, to goal difference it is, so:
-Win by more than one and Cote d'Ivoire Tie = Through
-Win by One and Cote d'Ivoire Tie and it's on to goals scored, so:
--Score 1 or fewer more than Cote d'Ivoire = Out
--Score 3 or more more than Cote d'Ivoire = Through
--Score 2 more than Cote D'Ivoire and it's head to head. Cote d'Ivoire won that game 2-1, therefore = Out
Win and Greece win = Tied for 2nd, to goal difference is is, so:
-Win by more than, the same as or one fewer than Greece = Through
-Win by 3 fewer than Greece = Out
-Win by 2 fewer than Greece and it's on to goals scored, so:
--Score more or the same as Greece = Through
--Score 2 fewer than Greece = Out
--Score 1 fewer than Greece and we move on to head to head, all of that is tied, so it'd be Drawing of lots, Win = Through in 2nd, Lose = Out

Cote d'Ivoire

Win = Through
Lose = Out
Tie and Japan Lose or Tie = Through
Tie and Japan win = tied for 2nd, to goal difference it is, so:
-Tie and Japan win by 2 or more = Out
- Tie and Japan win by 1 and it's off to goals scored so:
--Score more, the same as or one fewer than Japan = Through
--Score 3 fewer than Japan = Out
--Score 2 fewer than Japan and it's off to head to head. Cote d'Ivoire won that game 2-1 = Through

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Colombia Win or Colombia/Japan tie, Cote d'Ivoire win or Cote d'Ivoire/Greece Tie = Colombia 1st, Cote d'Ivoire 2nd
Colombia Win or Colombia/Japan tie, Greece Win = Colombia 1st, Greece 2nd
Japan Win, Cote d'Ivoire Win = Colombia and Cote d'Ivoire through, 1st place dependent on GD
Japan Win, Cote d'Ivoire/Greece Tie = Colombia 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Japan and Cote d'Ivoire
Japan Win, Greece Win = Colombia 1st, 2nd place goes to GD between Japan and Greece

Group D

#	Country	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Costa Rica	2	2	0	0	4	1	3	6
2	Italy	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3
3	Uruguay	2	1	0	1	3	4	-1	3
4	England	2	0	0	2	2	4	-2	0

Fixtures (Tuesday at 12 Eastern)

England vs Costa Rica, Italy vs Uruguay

What do we know for sure:

Costa Rica are Through, England are Out

Who needs what?

Italy
Win = Through
Tie = Through on goal difference
Lose = Out

Uruguay
Win = Through
Tie = Out on goal difference
Lose = Out

Nice and simple. England could potentially move up to 3rd, Costa Rica might drop to 2nd, but whatever.

To put it another way, here's what each combination of results would mean:
Costa Rica Win or Costa Rica/England Tie, Italy Win or Italy/Uruguay Tie = Costa Rica 1st, Italy 2nd
Costa Rica Win or Costa Rica/England Tie, Uruguay Win = Costa Rica 1st, Uruguay 2nd
England Win (Yes, I know, I know), Italy Win = Costa Rica and Italy through, 1st place goes to GD
England Win, Italy/Uruguay Tie = Costa Rica 1st, Italy 2nd
England Win, Uruguay Win = Costa Rica and Uruguay through, 1st Place goes to GD