All things equal, Toronto FC have never had much luck in Major League Soccer, not that they have made much of their own. So when "unlucky omens" show up, things get even worse.
The number 13 has always been seen as unlucky, and for Toronto FC the 13th match day of every season has so far proven impossible to win. In eight tries the team has gone winless in their 13th match of the MLS season.
Not only have they lost these matchdays, they have often done so in epic fashion. Four reds have been sent off in game 13, including Luke Moore last season. In 2011 it was also host to the biggest lost in club history: 6-2 to the Philadelphia Union.
While all of this "spooky" game 13 talk is coincidence, it does underline a bigger point: it's after the first third of the season that Toronto FC go off the rails.
The numbers back this up. Toronto earn 0.25 more points per game in the first 12 games of the season than they do after game 13. Keep in mind that in both 2012 and 2013 Toronto FC only won once in their first 12 games.
As a number 0.25 may seem insignificant, but over a 34 game season that translates into roughly eight more points. Eight additional points would have put Toronto FC in the playoffs in 2008, 2009 and 2014.
What this theory demonstrates is the obviously: around the 13 game mark of the season Toronto FC start falling out of playoff contention. While it would only be symbolic, a win in game 13 this year would hopefully prove this year is the exception.
How Toronto FC have historically faired against Expansion Teams
On Saturday Toronto FC has the chance to achieve yet another first in a season where they have already achieved a number of historic feats. Should Toronto defeat New York City FC on Saturday they will finally have a winning record against expansion teams in their inaugural season.
It could be another trivial statistic, but it also could represent a coming of age for a team who nine seasons later still feel like an expansion team themselves. Performance wise they have never really caught up with the rest of the league.
It wasn't until 2010 and the Philadelphia Union that Toronto got their first victory against an expansion team, consequently their first goal against one as well. Since then they have been slightly better, a 1-0 victory against Orlando City SC bringing them up to 5-5-4 all time.
That still isn't a very impressive record against opponents that are supposed to be easy victories for established Major League Soccer teams. In modern MLS expansion (post- Toronto FC), Toronto, San Jose, Philadelphia, Portland, Vancouver and Montreal all missed the playoffs in their opening season.
The Seattle Sounders were the only team to have instant success, proving that the days of the Chicago Fire, who won the 1998 MLS Cup in their first ever season. The fact that teams aren't just instantly successful in the league is probably a good sign of its growth.
This year, Orlando City have taken the Seattle rout in the early going, sitting tenth in the league, while New York City FC are playing like a more traditional expansion team, and are 19th out of 20.