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FiveThirtyEight: Toronto FC have a 51 per cent chance at the Supporters’ Shield

GAME DAY! Heading into tonight’s match against the New York Red Bulls, the odds are in TFC’s favour.

MLS: Columbus Crew SC at Toronto FC
Toronto FC midfielder Richie Laryea (22) is congratulated by his teammates after scoring against Columbus Crew
(Butler II/USA TODAY Sports)

TORONTO, Canada—Good morning WTReaders! It’s your favourite day of the week: a Toronto FC match day! The Reds return to their ‘home away from home’ at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field in East Hartford, Connecticut to take on the New York Red Bulls just three days removed from blanking FC Cincinnati 1-0 Sunday evening.

With just six matches to play, the club’s magic number is down to 16 in their quest to lift their second-ever Supporters’ Shield. Heading into Wednesday evening, the club is receiving some high praise around the league as well.

Toronto FC Defies Adversity to Overtake Eastern Conference

With the odds stacked substantially against them, Toronto FC are yet again rising to the occasion, as the first team to punch a ticket to the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. They’ve done so in remarkable form, with only two losses in of 17 regular-season games this season (11-2-4), including a current seven-game unbeaten streak that features five straight wins—one shy of matching a club record.

Toronto has only five losses in their last 34 regular season games, which during a normal year would constitute a complete season. That combined run of form (18-5-11, 65 points) is not too far off of their record-setting 2017 season (20-5-9, 69 points) that garnered the Supporters’ Shield and the top seed in the postseason.

Tapping into the successful history of its not-so-distant past, Toronto has reached MLS Cup in three of the last four seasons. With Landon Donovan Most Valuable Player candidate Alejandro Pozuelo posting seven goals and 10 assists for a league-best 17 combined tallies, alongside 20-year-old breakout forward Ayo Akinola ’s eight goals in 12 games, TFC has found the winning recipe that could keep them atop MLS standings by season’s end. (via

After the club’s 1-0 win over Cincinnati, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight projections, Toronto FC now have a 51 per cent chance at taking home this year’s Supporters’ Shield. The odds certainly leaped up when Seattle Sounders simultaneously dropped points to LAFC over the weekend.

For what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight still have the Seattle Sounders as the favourites at 15 per cent to take home this year’s MLS Cup with The Reds not too far behind at 14 per cent.

FiveThirtyEight: Projected Supporters’ Shield Chances

  1. Toronto FC - 51%
  2. Seattle Sounders - 18%
  3. Philadelphia Union - 13%
  4. Columbus Crew SC - 8%
  5. Orlando City SC - 4%

FiveThirtyEight: Projected MLS Cup Chances

  1. Seattle Sounders - 15%
  2. Toronto FC - 14%
  3. LAFC - 11%
  4. Philadelphia Union - 10%
  5. New York City FC - 7%

As mentioned, TFC will host the New York Red Bulls on Wednesday, October 14 and Atlanta United FC on Sunday, October 18 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. The Reds will then travel to Philadelphia to meet the Union, followed by home matches with New York City FC and Inter Miami CF, before concluding the regular season on Sunday, November 8 at Red Bull Arena against the Red Bulls in MLS Decision Day.

Let’s see if Toronto FC, who are unbeaten in their last seven games, can better those odds this evening by overcoming the NY Red Bulls and match a club record with their sixth consecutive win. As always, we’ll have your live match thread up on the site approximately an hour before kickoff.

Do we think the Reds can see this out?