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FiveThirtyEight: Toronto FC have a 60 per cent chance at the Supporters’ Shield

Heading into Saturday’s marquee matchup with the Philadelphia Union, The Reds have a stranglehold on the Supporters’ Shield race. Can they better those odds tonight?

Toronto FC v New England Revolution
Richie Laryea #22 and Laurent Ciman #26 of Toronto FC celebrate after a game.

TORONTO, Canada—Heading into Saturday’s marquee matchup against the second-place Philadelphia Union, according to oddsmakers FiveThirtyEight, Toronto FC have a 60 per cent chance at lifting the Supporters’ Shield at the end of the regular season.

The Reds, who currently hold a three-point lead over the Union atop the MLS standings with four games left to play, could see that number could shift drastically—up or down—after tonight’s trip to Subaru Park. Philadelphia have the second-best odds at hoisting the Shield at 28 per cent and appear to be Toronto’s only real threat.

Aside from Philadelphia, Columbus Crew SC (6 per cent) and the Seattle Sounders (4 per cent) are the only teams who own a greater than one per cent chance at winning the end-of-season trophy, meaning that three points tonight over the Union for The Reds could all but put the Supporters’ Shield race to bed.

Following tonight’s showdown, Toronto FC will have three games left to play: Wednesday against New York City FC, next Sunday against Inter Miami CF, and finally, Sunday Nov. 8 against the New York Red Bulls on Decision Day.

But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. All eyes on tonight in what should be a playoff-like atmosphere. Are we feeling confident, #TFCLive?