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FiveThirtyEight: Toronto FC have an 18 per cent chance at the Supporters’ Shield entering Decision Day

The odds are stacked against the Reds, but the scenario is quite simple. Find out what needs to happen for Toronto FC to lift the Supporters’ Shield on Sunday!

MLS: Inter Miami CF at Toronto FC
Toronto FC midfielder Alejandro Pozuelo (10) is congratulated by Toronto FC forward Ayo Akinola (20) after scoring against Inter Miami

TORONTO, Canada—The 2020 Supporters’ Shield race is coming down to the wire and with one game left to play, the Reds are still one of two teams that remain in contention.

According to oddsmakers FiveThirtyEight, Toronto FC have just an 18 per cent chance at lifting their second Shield while Eastern Conference rivals Philadelphia Union are in pole position at 82 percent. TFC can finish no lower than second overall in MLS.

Tied for first place, separated only on goal differential, in order for the Reds to swoop in and win the Supporters’ Shield, simply put, TFC need to better Philadelphia’s result on Sunday. Therefore, a Union victory over the New England Revolution at Subaru Park means they win the Shield, while anything but opens the door for Toronto as they take on the New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena.

As usual on MLS Decision Day, all Eastern Conference matches will kickoff at the same time (3:30 p.m. EST).

Regardless of the outcome on Sunday, both teams have been models of consistency throughout what has been a treacherous 2020. Despite the inevitable ups and downs, heading into Decision Day, both clubs have taken 44 points from their 22 games this season—an average of 2.00 points per game.

In MLS history, only six teams have finished a season with 2.00 points per game or better, the record set by the Los Angeles Galaxy in 1998 (2.13). A win for the Union and TFC would give them an average of 2.04 points per game this year, which would rank fourth overall in league annals, per an MLS press release.

From a Toronto FC perspective—and as Martyn Bailey pointed out earlier this week—a win for Toronto means that they would also better their franchise record for points per game established back in 2017 (2.03).

Do we think the Reds can pull this off on Sunday and how do we feel about our fate being in the hands of the Philadelphia Union?