clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

A World Cup Draw Simulation

Where would Canada end up if the draw was simulated 10,000 times?

Now that Canada has qualified, we eagerly await to find out who they’re playing.
Sean Pollock - Waking the Red

Since we’re CanMNT-obsessed right now, and are incredibly impatient regarding the World Cup Draw, I ran a simulation of tomorrow’s event. Because I’m crazy, and perhaps enjoy working with spreadsheets a little too much, I ran the simulation 10,000 times. Yes – you read that right – 10,000 times!

For those who are interested, I generated a list of the pots (seen below) and had Excel randomly draw a country from each pot. Excel generated a ton of data – and provided us with a glimpse into the madness that is the World Cup. I’m just happy to be included in this draw. However, Canada will surprise a few people in November – you can bet on the Reds winning a game or two (Canada is +25000 to win the World Cup, so you might want to hold off on mortgaging your house).

Here are the Pots for the draw
fifa.com

Before looking at the results, here are a few important things to note – (So you can become more confused with FIFA rules. Isn’t it exciting!?!):

1) The Placement of each country in the pots is based on current FIFA Rankings as of March 31st, 2022. If you’re curious, you can take a look here:

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13603

2) Qatar, regardless of their FIFA ranking, is in pot 1 and is automatically in Group A as tournament hosts.

3) Some of the spots haven’t been completely decided as of today (March 31st). These include the winner of the final UEFA (Wales vs. Scotland/Ukraine) play-off, the winner of AFC vs. CONMEBOL (UAE/Australia vs. Peru) play-off, and the winner of the CONCACAF vs. OFC (Costa Rica vs. New Zealand) play-off. Since Canada is in Pot 4, they have no chance of facing any of those play-off winners in the Group Stage.

4) All the groups – A through H – can have no more than one team from each region, except for UEFA. The maximum limit for European teams per group is two. So, we can’t have the United States and/or Mexico in our group to allow us to win up to two group stage games!

So, here’s what Excel told us after the 10,000 draw simulation:

GROUP A

  • Qatar
  • Denmark
  • Morocco
  • Canada

Out of the many, many scenarios that could happen tomorrow, this outcome is perhaps the most appealing. Denmark is the toughest team from this group, as the Danes are ranked 11th in the world. Morocco is ranked 24th in the world, while Qatar is ranked 51st (For reference, Canada is currently ranked 38th). If this scenario actually happens, there is a strong possibility Canada progresses to the knockout stages.

As an aside, If you would like to try a simulation of all of the groups for the World Cup, here’s a link to an excellent simulator:

https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/

What do you think of the possibility of this group? Would you like to see Canada have a favourable group in Qatar, or would you like to see one of the world footballing powerhouses be drawn alongside Canada? Let us know your dream scenario in the comments below.