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Due to the FIFA World Cup being played in November and December, the 2022 MLS schedule has been compressed. With that tweak, we’re able to see the playoff picture developing a bit earlier than usual this year.
With six games remaining in the regular season, there is certainly a chance for TFC to qualify for the playoffs, but it means they might need to get help from other teams. There are a number of scenarios that can be used to try to predict the rest of the regular season. Where does TFC end up with these scenarios?
Here are the current Eastern Conference Standings:
Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | PL | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | PPG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | PL | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | PPG |
1 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 54 | 1.93 |
2 | CF Montreal | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 49 | 1.81 |
3 | New York City FC | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 45 | 1.67 |
4 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 44 | 1.57 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 39 | 1.39 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 36 | 1.38 |
7 | Inter Miami | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 36 | 1.33 |
8 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 35 | 1.30 |
9 | New England Revolution | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 34 | 1.26 |
10 | Toronto FC | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 | 1.18 |
11 | Atlanta United | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 | 1.22 |
12 | Charlotte FC | 28 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 32 | 1.14 |
13 | Chicago Fire FC | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 30 | 1.11 |
14 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 22 | 0.81 |
Toronto sits in 10th place, but is only 3 points out of 7th place. One of the concerning things to note is that Cincinnati and New England have one game at hand, while Columbus has two games at hand. This detail makes the playoffs a little bit further away for TFC.
Scenario #1
Here are the final standings in the Eastern Conference based on points per game for the whole season.
Predictions based on Whole Season PPG
| Team | PL | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | PPG | Projected Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | PL | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | PPG | Projected Points |
1 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 54 | 1.93 | 66 |
2 | CF Montreal | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 49 | 1.81 | 62 |
3 | New York City FC | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 45 | 1.67 | 57 |
4 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 44 | 1.57 | 53 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 39 | 1.39 | 47 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 36 | 1.38 | 47 |
7 | Inter Miami | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 36 | 1.33 | 45 |
8 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 35 | 1.3 | 44 |
9 | New England Revolution | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 34 | 1.26 | 43 |
10 | Atlanta United | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 | 1.22 | 42 |
11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 | 1.18 | 40 |
12 | Charlotte FC | 28 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 32 | 1.14 | 39 |
13 | Chicago Fire FC | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 30 | 1.11 | 38 |
14 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 22 | 0.81 | 28 |
While this data could be used to predict playoffs, it is not the most accurate method, especially for Toronto. Over half of the matches were played BI (Before Italians) than AI (After Italians), thus not accounting for the team’s revamped roster. However, the problem is that these BI matches are still part of the season points total.
Verdict: Toronto FC finishes 11th, missing the playoffs.
Scenario #2
Here are the final standings in the Eastern Conference based on points per game for the last five games.
Standings based on Last 5 Matches
| Team | PL | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | Last 5 Wins | Last 5 Draws | Last 5 Losses | last 5 Points | Last 5 PPG | Games Remaining | Projected Pts. | Projected Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | PL | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | Last 5 Wins | Last 5 Draws | Last 5 Losses | last 5 Points | Last 5 PPG | Games Remaining | Projected Pts. | Projected Total |
1 | CF Montreal | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2.6 | 7 | 18 | 67 |
2 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 11 | 65 |
3 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 10 | 54 |
4 | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 14 | 53 |
5 | Inter Miami | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 50 |
6 | New York City FC | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
7 | Atlanta United | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 13 | 46 |
8 | Columbus Crew | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
9 | Toronto FC | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 45 |
10 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 10 | 45 |
11 | New England Revolution | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 11 | 45 |
12 | Charlotte FC | 28 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
13 | Chicago Fire FC | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 6 | 36 |
14 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 8 | 2 | 24 |
This calculation takes into account TFC’s more recent form, which has been vastly improved since AI. However, five matches is only about 18% of the total of 28 matches so far this season, which is not necessarily the most accurate measure of a team’s form. While TFC has averaged 2 points per game over this stretch, it is still not enough to make the playoffs.
Verdict: Toronto FC finishes 9th, missing the playoffs.
(Interesting side note: Based on these calculations, the Mount Royal Foot Club would overtake Philadelphia at the top of the standings. Ugh.)
Scenario #3
Here are the final standings in the Eastern Conference based on predictions for each game remaining in the schedule for the Eastern Conference
Standings based on predictions
| Team | Predicted Total | Current Points | TOTAL POINTS |
---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Predicted Total | Current Points | TOTAL POINTS |
1 | Philadelphia Union | 12 | 54 | 66 |
2 | CF Montreal | 13 | 49 | 62 |
3 | New York City FC | 12 | 45 | 57 |
4 | New York Red Bulls | 9 | 44 | 53 |
5 | Inter Miami | 13 | 36 | 49 |
6 | FC Cincinnati | 13 | 35 | 48 |
7 | Toronto FC | 14 | 33 | 47 |
8 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 36 | 46 |
9 | Orlando City | 7 | 39 | 46 |
10 | New England Revolution | 10 | 34 | 44 |
11 | Charlotte FC | 9 | 32 | 41 |
12 | Chicago Fire FC | 0 | 30 | 30 |
13 | Atlanta United | 1 | 33 | 34 |
14 | DC United | 4 | 22 | 26 |
Toronto’s remaining matches (With wildly optimistic/somewhat realistic predictions):
August 31st vs. LA Galaxy
It’s a home game against the Galaxy. Greg Vanney is back in Toronto for the first time since leaving the club. There are a bunch of former Reds returning too, making it a huge match. TFC should come out flying in this game and put some goals past the Galaxy’s mediocre defence.
Result: TFC wins
September 4th vs. CF Montreal
Derby day on a long weekend against Montreal. It will literally be a carnival atmosphere at BMO on Sunday night with the CNE in full swing. Montreal is a good team. It will be a battle for the whole 90 minutes.
Result: Draw
September 10th at Atlanta United
Toronto always creates problems for Atlanta at the Mercedes Benz Stadium. With the addition of the Italians, TFC should make this team have nightmares. This match could end Atlanta’s playoff hopes. I will delight in the misfortune of Atlanta.
Result: TFC wins
September 17th at Orlando City
Orlando is a bit of a wild card, having lost to DC United and New England, but winning against NYCFC and the Red Bulls. TFC will face a tired team, as Orlando has five matches in 17 days. Toronto should be able to get a result in Florida.
Result: TFC wins
September 30th vs. Inter Miami
It’s the final home game of the regular season for TFC, which means get there early for your free toque! With the return of the Karate Kid Alejandro Pozuelo, this match should be a banger.
Result: TFC wins
October 9th at Philadelphia Union
Remember when TFC beat Philly at BMO earlier this season, handing the Union their first loss of the 2022 campaign? That result was certainly unexpected. This match might be a moot point for Philly, as they might have clinched first place by Decision Day. The Union might rest their starters.
Result: TFC wins
With a possible 18 points available, Toronto FC is capable of winning all six remaining matches. Realistically, TFC will need to get a result from every game with either a win or a draw. Having to play the top two teams in the Eastern Conference will hopefully result in a draw. With TFC having played one more match than many playoff contenders, it means that there is little room for error in this scenario.
Verdict: Toronto FC finishes 7th, making the playoffs.
Conclusion
While there are various scenarios available to predict playoff berths, the third Scenario is the most accurate. When looking at the Eastern Conference, there are only a few teams that TFC supporters need to be concerned with when scoreboard watching – Orlando, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Miami. Many of the remaining games see these teams playing each other, which can have a huge impact on the season outcome. If you’re curious, you can hope for a draw when these teams play each other, like the draw between Columbus and Cincinnati this past weekend.
Scenario #3 points to the fact that TFC needs to basically win almost every remaining game to have a chance at the playoffs. Also, the team will need some help in order to make it work.
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